The Five Indicators of Crisis III
Our new book, Crisis Engineering, is about what actually happens when systems break under pressure, and how to fix them.
It comes out April 7, 2026 everywhere books are sold as a paperback, and audiobook (read by Cassandra Campbell).
For bulk orders below 500 copies, purchase at Porchlight. For bulk orders over 500 copies, please contact marina@layeraleph.com.
This post is the third of a three-part series on the signals and shock of crisis, along with the opportunities for response and renewal they unlock.
Part one covers fundamental surprise and failure of sensemaking. Part two covers disruption of core processes and outcomes.
High Visibility and Rigid Deadline
Crisis Indicator 4: High Visibility
Increased visibility, either in scope or intensity, often accompanies other crisis circumstances or, sometimes, precipitates them. Visibility can come from regulators, auditors, employees, media, whistle blowers, law enforcement, intelligence services, militaries—the list goes on and on.
Perhaps disruption of a core process has landed the organization the center of attention of both media AND regulators, like it did for Delta Airlines in 2024[1]. Perhaps regulator attention has an executive on stage[2] or in the witness stand[3]. The rise in visibility past a point of critical mass can be entirely internal, like around a dramatic decision by leadership or cultural shift.
Canonical signs of this crisis condition are an organization being featured daily or weekly in the news cycle, or a single topic dominating all conversations within an organization.
Brutally, outside attention can reduce an appetite for risk during a time when the only hope for success is trying new actions.
How to use it
Increased visibility can force action, as the price of inaction grows unacceptably high. Leaders can have new incentives, like appearing decisive. Decisions in general can have much greater impact since more of the organization's attention is concentrated. Knowing this prepares you to focus on restoring sensemaking in the places where decisions will affect the most important resources, and where to make such places if they are missing.
Crisis Indicator 5: Rigid Deadline or Timeframe
Most deadlines, and many so-called timing constraints, are more flexible than they appear. Missed deadlines or product launches usually result in minor costs, a few extra meetings or some internal finger-pointing. Not a crisis.
Even the IRS delays tax deadlines rather regularly.
But some deadlines are truly fixed or nearly impossible to move. Static deadlines can result from physical constraints, like launch windows in aerospace applications, which are dictated by physics[4]. Effectively fixed timing can be imposed by higher-order control systems like courts, regulations, auditors, or financial systems. "Market Open" is a rigid deadline for your overnight financial system maintenance[5]. Financing deadlines for mergers are existential, as are many timing constraints dictated by law[6].
Extant or imminent failure in the face of a hard, nonnegotiable deadline is a clear hallmark of a useful crisis.
How to use it
Rigid timing constraints can be used to compress decision-making timelines. Matters that used to take months to decide will now be settled in hours or minutes. Process and policy requiring time, previously treated as cast in stone, can be recast as optional and an unnecessary luxury under "the circumstances."
https://apnews.com/article/outage-airline-delta-40fc208ac838cafab40482b731072018 ↩︎
https://abcnews.com/Politics/social-media-ceos-face-grilling-senators-child-safety/story?id=106825984 ↩︎
https://apnews.com/article/mark-zuckerberg-trial-testimony-instagram-c8cbaa32ccbf4933ec3a7beebd6cf34b ↩︎
https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/02/nasa-says-it-needs-to-haul-the-artemis-ii-rocket-back-to-the-hangar-for-repairs/ ↩︎
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/nyse-sanctioned-over-market-outage/ ↩︎
https://www.ft.com/content/7a4e22b5-7375-482c-bc6b-114d4c2bcb0b?syn-25a6b1a6=1 ↩︎